Progressive Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) has scored some notable wins in his effort to buck the party establishment in New Jersey’s increasingly surprising Senate race, raising the possibility of an upset in the June Democratic primary.
Kim is facing off against New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy, who has the support of numerous party leaders and elected Democrats. These endorsements and her connection to the top Democrat in the state, Gov. Phil Murphy, positioned her as an early favorite for the seat held by Sen. Bob Menendez (D), who has been indicted on a wide range of charges.
But Kim has managed to keep pace with Murphy through a series of critical county conventions that could be highly influential on whom voters ultimately select as their next senator.
“For the first time in my career in politics in New Jersey, I have to say I really don’t know how it’s going to turn out,” said Democratic strategist Matt Krayton.
Kim and Murphy quickly jumped into the New Jersey Senate race last year after the indictment against Menendez, who has held the seat since 2006. He and his wife are accused of accepting bribes from a group of businessmen in exchange for favors, among other offenses. Menendez has denied the allegations against him and refused calls to step down.
While he has not publicly said whether he will seek reelection, the filing deadline for the Democratic primary is Monday, and a poll this month found his approval rating at 16 percent.
Both Kim and Murphy have denounced Menendez and called for him to resign, but the contest between the two has turned feisty, with Kim challenging the state’s primary ballot system that he argues is undemocratic and unfairly benefits Murphy.
Kim and two House candidates filed a lawsuit last month against the process that 19 of the state’s 21 counties use to determine where a candidate’s name is placed on the ballot.
The Garden State’s primary ballot is designed unlike that of any other state. The ballot consists of a grid, with each row being for a different office — such as president, senator or U.S. representative — and candidates’ names being placed in columns from right to left for the office they’re seeking.
The most optimal place for a candidate to be is in the "county line," a column of candidates that the county party endorses for the office, usually the first column on the left. Candidates who don’t receive the county party endorsement are placed in a different column on the ballot, one or more columns away from the county line.
This placement is often known as “ballot Siberia,” because it can be far away from the main county line.
Kim’s lawsuit argues that the county line system is an “unconstitutional governmental thumb on the scale” that gives certain candidates an unfair advantage.
“Government, including the Defendants (who themselves are often beneficiaries of the county line as elected officers) cannot constitutionally design a primary ballot to favor only those candidates who happen to be endorsed by a faction of a party’s leadership,” the lawsuit states.
U.S. District Judge Zahid Quraishi appeared to express at least some skepticism about the continued use of county lines to set the ballot. But he did not give a clear indication on how he might rule.
But Kim’s efforts seem to have at least a decent chance of success. State Attorney General Matthew Platkin (D) was not named in the suit but sent Quraishi a letter Sunday saying he agreed that the system is undemocratic and unconstitutional.
Even with the lines in place, Kim has performed well in the conventions that county Democratic parties have held across the state in February and March. He has won the county line in eight counties, the same number as Murphy, and Kim has also won an endorsement in one county that does not use the county line.
Just a few counties have yet to make their decision.
Krayton said a ruling striking down the county lines would have a “substantial impact” on the Senate race, as well as down-ballot contests across the state.
“That’s the big question mark. ... Will the line get eliminated? If it does, then ballots in the state of New Jersey are going to look a heck of a lot different than they have historically,” he said.
The state has used this system for years, but backlash to it has reached an apparent boiling point, especially among the grassroots progressive supporters whom Kim has focused on as a centerpiece of his candidacy.
New Jersey-based strategists said the backlash is coming from a variety of factors coalescing at the same time.
Krayton said the Trump administration caused many more voters who previously didn’t take a close interest in politics to pay more attention, starting with the 2018 midterms. He said many of these new voters, who helped flip four House seats — including Kim’s — from Republican to Democrat that year had a new perspective on how elections should work.
“A certain subset of voters are paying a lot more attention to the political process, particularly in primaries in a state like New Jersey, where there aren't a ton of opportunities for competitive races,” he said. “The opportunity for competition happens for the most part in the primary elections.”
Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky said frustration with the current system has been “simmering” for a long time, and backlash to former President Trump created a more “cohesive” Democratic grassroots movement. She said many activists have taken issue with Murphy's close ties to the governor and therefore party leaders, giving her an advantage in the current system.
“That’s deeply problematic for any number of people,” she said. “I have worked for every powerful Democratic organization in New Jersey over the course of 30 years. I am a product of these organizations to some extent, and if you’re having somebody like me say this now.”
But Kim may still face a challenge if the county lines remain in place at least for this race. While he has kept up with Murphy in terms of number of county endorsements won, Murphy has won the endorsement in the more populous counties, so more voters statewide would see her name on the county line than him.
Roginsky said Kim can still win with the county lines in effect, but he will need to win those counties from off the county line, or at least come close. In a June primary without any other notable race on the ballot, she added, Kim should benefit from stronger enthusiasm among his supporters compared to Murphy's.
“Those people turning out will be people who are deeply engaged in the primary, and those people I think are Kim people,” she said.
In a possible sign of Kim’s grassroots strength, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (D) cited the support the congressman has received as he switched his endorsement from Murphy to Kim on Monday.
“I told [Kim] it’s not always comfortable to admit a mistake but clearly I made one here and this convention season has demonstrated he is the better candidate to represent NJ,” Fulop posted on social media. “The backbone of our party volunteers and activists have spoken loudly and we should listen to them.”
Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, said Kim needs to mobilize voters he has rallied and make sure they vote on Election Day to overcome not having the county line in some of the most heavily Democratic counties.
She noted a stark divide between the types of county endorsements that Kim and Murphy have won. While Kim has almost swept the county endorsements decided by a secret ballot at an open convention, Murphy has performed better in counties where no convention is held, and the county chair decides themselves who to back.
“I think their wins show this steep division where Kim has been winning all of the open conventions, and Tammy Murphy has been winning the conventions that have some sort of advisory panel or advisory vote or party boss at the helm,” Koning said.
But if Kim is successful in getting the lines tossed, experts say it’s a new race.
“This would be a new frontier for New Jersey politics, and certainly an interesting race to test it on,” Koning said.