Editor's note: This report has been updated to clarify former Sen. Kelly Ayotte's support for New Hampshire's current abortion law.
Democrats in New Hampshire see their best opportunity in years to flip the governor’s mansion in what is shaping up to be among the most competitive races for a state executive position this cycle.
Outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) decided against seeking another term this year after holding the position for eight years. He has now thrown his support behind Republican former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who is set to take on former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D).
Craig’s allies acknowledge the obstacles she faces against a well-known figure like Ayotte, whose alignment with the popular Sununu may bolster her. But Democrats in the state are encouraged by signs that Vice President Harris is widening her lead over former President Trump, fueling hopes that she could help pull Craig across the finish line.
“It's starting to just feel and look like the stars are aligning here, that first coattails do matter in presidential races, and all indications are that the Trump campaign has pretty much packed its bags here,” said New Hampshire-based Democratic strategist Jim Demers, noting the lack of trips from the former president to the state.
New Hampshire has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 2004 and mostly had Democratic representatives and senators in Congress for the past 15 years.
But it also elected Sununu as governor by increasingly comfortable margins, and the Republican has enjoyed strong approval ratings throughout his tenure.
The state also elected Ayotte to the Senate in 2010. She developed a reputation as a conservative on certain issues and a moderate on others, before narrowly losing reelection in 2016 by fewer than 1,000 votes.
She has now reemerged in the political arena running in the same state as her last election but in a much different political environment than in 2016.
Democrats have sought to go on offense against Ayotte for her recent embrace of Trump and her stance on abortion, an issue that has made some Republicans vulnerable in the aftermath of the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022.
Ayotte withdrew her endorsement of Trump in 2016 following the release of the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape in which Trump was heard bragging about touching women.
But she now supports his 2024 candidacy, telling a local outlet “there's no question he's the right choice.”
Ayotte has declared her support for the state’s current 24-week law that also includes some exceptions past that. But Craig supporters have pointed to her support for federal legislation limiting abortion to 20 weeks, her votes to defund Planned Parenthood and her shepherding of Justice Neil Gorsuch during his confirmation hearings to the Supreme Court.
Gorsuch was ultimately one of the five justices who voted to overturn Roe.
“Why is she supporting Trump is also the bigger question. It drives at this fact that can you really trust Kelly Ayotte?” Craig campaign manager Craig Brown told The Hill.
Emma O'Brien, the states press secretary for the Democratic Governors Association, told The Hill that voters know Ayotte is "only out for herself," accusing her of lying about her record on abortion and "wholeheartedly embracing" Trump.
"While Joyce Craig is running to protect abortion rights, bring down costs, and keep Granite Staters safe, Kelly Ayotte has spent the last year reminding New Hampshire voters exactly why she can’t be trusted," O'Brien said.
Republicans maintain that Ayotte has been consistent in saying she supports the current law in New Hampshire, which most voters also back.
The Ayotte campaign has attacked Craig as being too liberal for New Hampshire, a state that has a reputation for being moderate in an otherwise very blue New England, and for her record as mayor.
Manchester, the state’s largest city, has dealt with homelessness for years, as polls have shown voters rate the cost of housing as one of the top concerns facing the state.
“We saw the homeless camps, we saw the runaway drugs, we saw the instances of violent crime. That’s the sort of lack of leadership or failure of leadership [from Craig],” Ayotte told a local radio station last week.
The Hill has reached out to Ayotte's campaign for comment.
“Joyce Craig failed Manchester and would do the same to the entire Granite State if given the opportunity,” Courtney Alexander, communications director for the Republican Governors Association, told The Hill.
Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett, a former Ayotte staffer, said his former boss has an opening.
“It’s a partnership you develop with the people of New Hampshire. Chris Sununu certainly has it,” he said. “I think Kelly Ayotte has it. She’s been working the state very hard for over a year.”
Ayotte has also run on a tagline of preventing the state from “becoming Massachusetts,” pointing to it as an example of liberal policies gone wrong.
Bartlett said this argument could resonate with voters who live in the state for a reason.
“We’re not New Englanders. We’re Granite Staters. There’s a significant difference with all of our neighbors. And people will move to New Hampshire because they appreciate that lifestyle, limited government, lower taxes, lower spending,” he said.
But he and Demers agreed that independent voters, who are truly in the middle and would vote for members of both parties, will decide what will likely be a tight outcome.
One poll released Tuesday from Saint Anselm College seemed to support that, with Ayotte leading Craig by just 3 points, within the margin of error. Both candidates overwhelmingly had the backing of their parties, while Ayotte led Craig by 3 points among independents, with 9 percent of respondents undecided.
“It is true that the governor's seat, unlike seats in Congress and so forth, tend to be viewed by New Hampshire voters ... as more of bipartisan positions,” said Dante Scala, a political science and international affairs professor from the University of New Hampshire. “And so there is that potential there to get crossover votes.”
Updated at 8:20 a.m. EDT