(The Hill) — GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley surpassed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in FiveThirtyEight’s (538) national polling average on Tuesday for the first time in the 2024 campaign.
Nathaniel Rakich, a senior editor and senior elections analyst for the polling analysis website, announced Haley’s move into second place on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Tuesday. By Wednesday, however, DeSantis appeared to have pulled ahead slightly once more.
Still, Tuesday's polling numbers marked the first time in the 2024 election that Haley has come in second in 538's average — which may highlight her rising popularity over the last few months.
Haley, a former United Nations ambassador and also the former governor of South Carolina, has been gaining momentum since August, with fuel from multiple strong primary debate performances.
DeSantis had held second place in the GOP field throughout most of the race, and at one time was closely behind former President Trump for the lead in the race. He has dropped since April, however, from above 30% nationally to low double-digits.
Haley, meanwhile, has also taken second place in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national political average, having held it since mid-December. She and DeSantis are statistically tied in RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
Trump is still the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination, holding a 50-point lead in 538's national average. He also has significant leads in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, but Haley has been gaining in these states also — especially in the latter.
Haley and DeSantis are set to face off in a debate hosted by CNN in Iowa next week ahead of the Hawkeye State’s caucuses on Jan. 15. Trump will skip the debate again and instead participate in a town hall hosted by Fox News.